BYU Tops Big 12 with 27.8% Chance at CFP Berth, According to FPI
In early analysis of the 2025 college football season, BYU stands out with a 27.8% chance to make the expanded College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)—the highest probability in the Big 12 Conference .
This projection positions the Cougars as the most likely Big 12 team to reach the playoff, edging out conference rivals such as Utah (24.2%), Iowa State (21.0%), and Kansas (13.9%) . The Big 12 remains one of the nation’s most volatile and talent-rich conferences, featuring powerhouse programs like Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Baylor .
FPI’s optimism reflects BYU’s promising outlook following a commanding win over Portland State and favorable initial standings—most notably a national ranking of 17th, the highest among Big 12 squads .
But beyond the numbers, BYU still has to prove it on the field. The Cougars must maintain a strong performance in conference play, especially with key matchups looming against stable opponents. FPI suggests that not only must BYU keep winning, but they also need to rely on game-by-game execution and tiebreaker scenarios to solidify their path to the playoff.
That said, BYU’s 27.8% playoff probability signals a significant vote of confidence in both their coaching staff’s strategic ability and the talent on the roster. If capitalized upon, this momentum could translate to a meaningful postseason run and elevate BYU’s profile on the national stage.
As the season unfolds, the Cougars’ ability to convert this statistical promise into tangible success will be a storyline to watch.
