Cal Raleigh’s rise to become the latest AL MVP favorite amid Aaron Judge’s injury concerns:
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Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has surged to the forefront of the 2025 American League MVP race, assuming favorite status as Aaron Judge’s unexpected elbow injury casts doubt over the Yankees star’s MVP credentials.
A sudden shift atop the MVP odds board
As of July 26, betting lines have transformed: Raleigh now carries the best odds for AL MVP at −145, while Judge, once the overwhelming favorite at nearly −600, has slipped to +115 following his placement on the 10-day injured list due to a right elbow flexor strain. Despite early concerns, Yankees manager Aaron Boone confirmed that Judge’s ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) remains intact—though the injury is sidelining his throwing ability for now .
Raleigh’s historic season at the plate
Raleigh’s MVP narrative is built on sheer power and impact. By the All-Star break, he had amassed 39 home runs, leading all of MLB, and became the first catcher and switch‑hitter to reach that mark so early in the season . His 40th homer came July 26, securing his lead and making history as the first catcher to hit 40 before the end of July .
On the year, Raleigh is slashing approximately .255/.368/.609 with a .977 OPS, tallying 84 RBIs and 69 runs scored over 101 games—a performance that exceeds expectations from a catcher, especially in Seattle’s pitch‑friendly home stadium .
Judge’s brilliance meets uncertain timeline
Aaron Judge, meanwhile, was enjoying another transcendent season before the elbow issue: he led MLB with a .342 batting average, a massive 1.160 OPS, 85 RBIs, and elite rankings in on-base (.449) and slugging (.756) percentages, making him a potential Triple Crown candidate . Judge’s injury stems from a throw made during a game in Toronto and has progressively limited his throwing strength, though hitting remains unaffected .
Though Boone has called the prognosis “relatively positive,” Judge is expected to serve as DH initially upon his return, delaying a full defensive return for some time .
Why Raleigh’s MVP case strengthens
While Judge still boasts superior traditional slash numbers and overall WAR, Raleigh’s MVP argument rests on his position and dependability. Catchers rarely maintain MVP-caliber offense due to wear and tear at the position. Raleigh’s power surge, historic milestones, consistent play, and defensive leadership (he’s a Gold and Platinum Glove winner, managing one of baseball’s top pitching staffs) deliver all-around value .
Moreover, sportsbooks report Raleigh now holds 33% of AL MVP futures handle, making him the largest liability in the market—an indicator of growing confidence among bettors in his MVP chances .
What lies ahead
Judge’s absence—expected to be at least 10 days—opens a window for Raleigh to cement his lead. If Judge’s return is slow or limited, Raleigh could pull further ahead in media narratives and MVP voting. Should Judge resume as DH only, his defensive contribution will diminish, while Raleigh will continue grinding behind the plate, providing both offensive power and defensive value.
With roughly two months of regular season remaining, Raleigh must maintain his pace. Should he finish with 45+ home runs from behind the plate, strong WAR metrics, and a playoff push from Seattle, voters may favor him over Judge despite traditional benchmarks.
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In the evolving AL MVP race, Cal Raleigh is not merely a beneficiary of Judge’s injury—he’s delivering a historic season on his own, turning from dark horse to front‑runner. As Judge fights back, the question becomes whether one of the game’s modern giants can reclaim the crown—or whether history is being made behind the plate in Seattle.
